Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. do not qualify for the presidential debate according to CNN’s guidelines. One of the requirements is that the candidate “must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency.” Trump and Biden are currently not on any state’s ballot as their conventions have not happened yet. Kennedy has turned in signatures in enough states, but he cannot control how fast or slow those signatures take to get certified. However, he is officially on nine state’s ballots making him the most eligible out of the three candidates.
Kennedy’s campaign has made significant strides in securing ballot access across multiple states. According to his campaign’s statement:
While Kennedy is waiting for some states to certify the signatures, this process is out of his control. He has ensured that multiple times the required number of signatures have been submitted to mitigate the risk of disqualification.
In contrast, neither Biden nor Trump currently appear on any state’s ballots, as their official nominations will not occur until their respective party conventions later this year.
To qualify for the debate, CNN requires candidates to receive at least 15% support in four separate national polls from a specific list of credible polling organizations. Kennedy has achieved this. When considering margin of error, he far exceeds this.
Two polls that meet CNN’s standards do not have RFK Jr. listed as an option in the poll. These include CBS News and NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College. Several of these organization have not done recent polls. CNN also left out the Harvard-Harris poll which consistently has RFK Jr over 15%. Was this done on purpose?
A margin of error reflects the range within which the true value of a poll’s results likely falls, accounting for the variability inherent in sampling a portion of the population rather than the whole. For instance, if a poll shows Kennedy with 16% support and a margin of error of 3.8%, his actual support could be as high as 19.8% or as low as 12.2%. This means that Kennedy’s reported percentages, when considering the margin of error, may well meet or exceed the 15% threshold required by CNN.
The Kennedy campaign has filed a complaint with the FEC regarding CNN’s debate criteria and potential violations of federal election law. The FEC has clarified that there is no “presumptive nominee” exemption in its regulations, which means CNN must apply its criteria equally to all candidates, including Biden and Trump, who currently do not meet the same ballot access criteria as Kennedy.
Another poll came out of Utah this week showing Kennedy and Biden polling the same at 20%.
68% of respondents say that the future of democracy is an extremely important issue while CNN is actively trying to rig the debate criteria.
According to PBS, 55% of respondents are not satisfied with Trump and Biden being the major party candidates.
One must also consider the significant influence of pharmaceutical advertising on television, a multi-billion dollar industry from which CNN profits. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has pledged to sign an executive order to ban pharmaceutical advertising on television, a move that would certainly level networks like CNN. This raises questions about potential conflicts of interest and the network’s objectivity in setting debate criteria.
While neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump currently meet CNN’s ballot access criteria due to pending party conventions, Kennedy has made significant strides, being officially on the ballot in nine states and having submitted sufficient signatures for ballot access in an additional 14 states. He has effectively reached the necessary threshold for 270 electoral votes, a feat not yet achieved by Biden or Trump.
Kennedy also meets CNN’s polling criteria, by reaching at least 15% support in four national polls. Despite the deliberate exclusion of certain polls that would bolster his standing, his performance indicates substantial voter support.
CNN, President Trump, and President Biden are making one thing clear: Any challenge to the two party system will be silenced.
Reality: Within the landscape of third-party and independent candidates, Kennedy’s campaign is not only financially strong but also highly competitive. While Joe Biden and Donald Trump brag about raising millions of dollars in one night, RFK Jr. is focused on addressing why 17% of people couldn’t pay all their bills last month, 27% skipped medical treatment because of the cost, 37% can’t afford a $400 emergency, and 52% cannot afford a $2,000 emergency.
On 06/15/2024, Politico published this article. It says, “Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential campaign is on financial life support.” This is far from the truth.
Here is how much Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Cornel West have raised according to the FEC.
Joe Biden (Democratic Party):
Donald Trump (Republican Party):
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Independent):
Cornel West (Third Party):
When compared to third-party candidates like Cornel West, Kennedy’s campaign finances are robust. Kennedy has raised nearly 40 times more than Cornel West, highlighting his financial advantage in the third-party landscape. Although a third party automatically gives you a disadvantage, Kennedy is the fourth highest fundraiser of all presidential candidates for 2024.
“Broke” is also a relative term. To Republicans and Democrats who have billionaires as donors, ten million dollars might not seem like a lot. For everyday Americans who have to put groceries back on the shelf because they can’t afford them or skip meals altogether, ten million is a lot of money.
While Biden and Trump boast about raising millions of dollars in short time frames, many Americans are struggling with basic necessities:
Biden raised $30 million in one night at a Hollywood fundraiser. Trump raised $141 million in just a few days following a legal verdict.
In stark contrast, Americans face rising household debt, unaffordable living costs, and economic insecurity. Kennedy’s Real State of the Union address highlights these issues, emphasizing that:
New Wealth: The wealth of the past generation has disproportionately benefited billionaires, leaving the middle class behind.
Public and Household Debt: U.S. public debt has soared to $34 trillion, and household debt has hit a record high of $17.3 trillion.
True Unemployment: Including discouraged workers, the true unemployment rate is 23%.
Living Costs: Many Americans struggle with housing, groceries, and child care costs.
Economic Despair: The economic situation leaves many fearing a single emergency could push them into homelessness.
The narrative that Kennedy is financially struggling is inaccurate when viewed through the proper context of third-party politics. His campaign is financially solid, especially when compared to other independent candidates like Cornel West. The real issue lies in the stark contrast between the fundraising of major political campaigns and the economic hardships faced by ordinary Americans, which Kennedy is committed to addressing.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is focused on tackling these core issues, ensuring that the economic struggles of everyday citizens are at the forefront of his campaign.
Reality: According to the polls, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. does not fit the definition of a spoiler. The polls point to one obvious spoiler in the 2024 presidential election, and that is President Biden.
A spoiler candidate is traditionally defined as one who cannot win the election under any circumstances and only serves to pull votes away from a candidate who otherwise could have won. Many believe that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) is a spoiler candidate whose presence in the race would primarily serve to get President Trump re-elected. However, current polls show a different story.
Contrary to popular belief, polls indicate that RFK Jr. pulls more votes from President Trump supporters than from President Biden supporters. Additionally, the data shows that whether or not RFK Jr. is in the race, President Biden loses to President Trump. By definition, this makes President Biden the spoiler, not RFK Jr.
Let’s examine three major polls to clarify this:
These results clearly show that RFK Jr. is not merely a spoiler. He holds substantial support that could redefine the race entirely.
RealClearPolitics provides a comprehensive hub of all major polls and averages them together. At the time of this article, the averaged polls indicate that President Trump wins in key swing states and across all polls combined. This further supports the argument that President Biden, not RFK Jr., fits the definition of a spoiler, as he appears to be the candidate less likely to secure a victory in the general election.
Many of RFK Jr.’s supporters are first-time voters or individuals who would otherwise not vote if he were not on the ballot. CNN just released a poll that asked disenfranchised voters who they would vote for. RFK Jr. received 37%, Trump 30%, and Biden 12%. CNN also discused how RFK Jr. pulls more votes from Trump than Biden.
This further proves that his candidacy does not detract from President Biden’s potential voter base, but rather brings new voters into the political process who would not participate in an election between only President Biden and President Trump. This also shows that RFK Jr. pulls more votes from President Trump.
The 2024 election is unprecedented in many ways. Both President Biden and President Trump are the oldest presidents in history, adding uncertainty to the race. Just as football fans say, “Any given Sunday,” this November could be “Any given November.” Both candidates could face unforeseen circumstances, such as legal issues or health problems, that might impact their viability.
The largest presidential poll to date indicates that RFK Jr. would win in a head-to-head race against either President Biden or President Trump. This makes him a true major candidate, not a spoiler.
RFK Jr.’s presence in the race challenges the traditional dynamics and offers voters an alternative that polls show is not just viable but potentially victorious. By the true definition of a spoiler, President Biden fits the role more accurately than RFK Jr.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is far from being a mere spoiler candidate. Polls consistently demonstrate his ability to pull significant support, especially from President Trump voters, and his potential to win in direct contests against both President Trump and President Biden. Additionally, his candidacy mobilizes first-time voters and those who would not otherwise vote, further proving his impact on the 2024 election. As the political landscape continues to evolve, RFK Jr.’s candidacy represents a legitimate third option that could change the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.