Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. do not qualify for the presidential debate according to CNN’s guidelines. One of the requirements is that the candidate “must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency.” Trump and Biden are currently not on any state’s ballot as their conventions have not happened yet. Kennedy has turned in signatures in enough states, but he cannot control how fast or slow those signatures take to get certified. However, he is officially on nine state’s ballots making him the most eligible out of the three candidates.
Ballot Access and Electoral Votes
Kennedy’s campaign has made significant strides in securing ballot access across multiple states. According to his campaign’s statement:
- The Kennedy-Shanahan ticket is officially on the ballot in nine states, including key states like California and Texas.
- The campaign has collected enough signatures for ballot access in 14 additional states.
- Kennedy has turned in the signatures needed for ballot access in 23 states, totaling 310 electoral votes, which surpasses the 270 electoral vote threshold required for presidential victory.
While Kennedy is waiting for some states to certify the signatures, this process is out of his control. He has ensured that multiple times the required number of signatures have been submitted to mitigate the risk of disqualification.
In contrast, neither Biden nor Trump currently appear on any state’s ballots, as their official nominations will not occur until their respective party conventions later this year.
Polling Criteria and Performance
To qualify for the debate, CNN requires candidates to receive at least 15% support in four separate national polls from a specific list of credible polling organizations. Kennedy has achieved this. When considering margin of error, he far exceeds this.
- CNN: 16% with a margin of error of 3.8%.
- Marquette University Law School: 17% with a margin of error of 4.3%.
- NBC News: 13% with a margin of error of 3.1%.
- Quinnipiac University: 16% with a margin of error of 2.6%.
- Monmouth: 18% with a margin of error of 4.3%.
- Fox: 13% with a margin of error of 2.5%.
Two polls that meet CNN’s standards do not have RFK Jr. listed as an option in the poll. These include CBS News and NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College. Several of these organization have not done recent polls. CNN also left out the Harvard-Harris poll which consistently has RFK Jr over 15%. Was this done on purpose?
A margin of error reflects the range within which the true value of a poll’s results likely falls, accounting for the variability inherent in sampling a portion of the population rather than the whole. For instance, if a poll shows Kennedy with 16% support and a margin of error of 3.8%, his actual support could be as high as 19.8% or as low as 12.2%. This means that Kennedy’s reported percentages, when considering the margin of error, may well meet or exceed the 15% threshold required by CNN.
Is this a Campaign Finance Violation?
The Kennedy campaign has filed a complaint with the FEC regarding CNN’s debate criteria and potential violations of federal election law. The FEC has clarified that there is no “presumptive nominee” exemption in its regulations, which means CNN must apply its criteria equally to all candidates, including Biden and Trump, who currently do not meet the same ballot access criteria as Kennedy.
What is Really Going on?
Another poll came out of Utah this week showing Kennedy and Biden polling the same at 20%.
68% of respondents say that the future of democracy is an extremely important issue while CNN is actively trying to rig the debate criteria.
According to PBS, 55% of respondents are not satisfied with Trump and Biden being the major party candidates.
One must also consider the significant influence of pharmaceutical advertising on television, a multi-billion dollar industry from which CNN profits. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has pledged to sign an executive order to ban pharmaceutical advertising on television, a move that would certainly level networks like CNN. This raises questions about potential conflicts of interest and the network’s objectivity in setting debate criteria.
Conclusion
While neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump currently meet CNN’s ballot access criteria due to pending party conventions, Kennedy has made significant strides, being officially on the ballot in nine states and having submitted sufficient signatures for ballot access in an additional 14 states. He has effectively reached the necessary threshold for 270 electoral votes, a feat not yet achieved by Biden or Trump.
Kennedy also meets CNN’s polling criteria, by reaching at least 15% support in four national polls. Despite the deliberate exclusion of certain polls that would bolster his standing, his performance indicates substantial voter support.
CNN, President Trump, and President Biden are making one thing clear: Any challenge to the two party system will be silenced.
