Reality: According to the polls, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. does not fit the definition of a spoiler. The polls point to one obvious spoiler in the 2024 presidential election, and that is President Biden.
Definition of a Spoiler
A spoiler candidate is traditionally defined as one who cannot win the election under any circumstances and only serves to pull votes away from a candidate who otherwise could have won. Many believe that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) is a spoiler candidate whose presence in the race would primarily serve to get President Trump re-elected. However, current polls show a different story.
Polling Data Analysis
Contrary to popular belief, polls indicate that RFK Jr. pulls more votes from President Trump supporters than from President Biden supporters. Additionally, the data shows that whether or not RFK Jr. is in the race, President Biden loses to President Trump. By definition, this makes President Biden the spoiler, not RFK Jr.
Let’s examine three major polls to clarify this:
Harvard-Harris Poll
- Head-to-Head: President Trump 53%, President Biden 47%
- With RFK Jr.: President Trump 45%, President Biden 40%, RFK Jr. 14%
NY Times/Siena Poll:
Biden/Trump/Third Parties
- Head-to-Head: President Trump 49%, President Biden 43%
- With Third Party Candidates: President Trump 42%, President Biden 36%
Kennedy/Shanahan Campaign’s Zogby Poll:
- Respondents: Over 26,000, significantly more than typical polls (1,000-2,500 respondents)
- Results: President Biden does not win against President Trump alone, against RFK Jr. alone, or against both of them. However, RFK Jr. beats President Trump one-on-one and President Biden one-on-one.
RealClearPolitics Analysis
These results clearly show that RFK Jr. is not merely a spoiler. He holds substantial support that could redefine the race entirely.
RealClearPolitics provides a comprehensive hub of all major polls and averages them together. At the time of this article, the averaged polls indicate that President Trump wins in key swing states and across all polls combined. This further supports the argument that President Biden, not RFK Jr., fits the definition of a spoiler, as he appears to be the candidate less likely to secure a victory in the general election.
First-Time Voters and Unique Support Base
Many of RFK Jr.’s supporters are first-time voters or individuals who would otherwise not vote if he were not on the ballot. CNN just released a poll that asked disenfranchised voters who they would vote for. RFK Jr. received 37%, Trump 30%, and Biden 12%. CNN also discused how RFK Jr. pulls more votes from Trump than Biden.
This further proves that his candidacy does not detract from President Biden’s potential voter base, but rather brings new voters into the political process who would not participate in an election between only President Biden and President Trump. This also shows that RFK Jr. pulls more votes from President Trump.
The Reality of the Situation
The 2024 election is unprecedented in many ways. Both President Biden and President Trump are the oldest presidents in history, adding uncertainty to the race. Just as football fans say, “Any given Sunday,” this November could be “Any given November.” Both candidates could face unforeseen circumstances, such as legal issues or health problems, that might impact their viability.
The largest presidential poll to date indicates that RFK Jr. would win in a head-to-head race against either President Biden or President Trump. This makes him a true major candidate, not a spoiler.
RFK Jr.’s presence in the race challenges the traditional dynamics and offers voters an alternative that polls show is not just viable but potentially victorious. By the true definition of a spoiler, President Biden fits the role more accurately than RFK Jr.
Conclusion
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is far from being a mere spoiler candidate. Polls consistently demonstrate his ability to pull significant support, especially from President Trump voters, and his potential to win in direct contests against both President Trump and President Biden. Additionally, his candidacy mobilizes first-time voters and those who would not otherwise vote, further proving his impact on the 2024 election. As the political landscape continues to evolve, RFK Jr.’s candidacy represents a legitimate third option that could change the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
